SHARON'S WORST NIGHTMARE

BBC:

Medical team arrives at Arafat HQ
A team of doctors has arrived at Yasser Arafat's headquarters in Ramallah where the ailing Palestinian leader's health is thought to have deteriorated.

An ambulance pulled up at the compound in the West Bank and medics went inside shortly after Israeli TV reported a decline in Mr Arafat's condition.

He is said to have been suffering from a bout of flu as well as a gallstone, thought to be easily treatable.

Tests on Mr Arafat this week are said to have shown up no major illnesses.

A senior adviser to the leader, Nabil Abu Rudeina, confirmed that doctors were examining the 75-year-old leader late on Wednesday.

"A team of Tunisian and Palestinian doctors is examining the president," Mr Abu Rudeina said in a statement read out to journalists in front of the compound.

Unidentified officials also told reporters that Mahmoud Abbas, Mr Arafat's deputy leader in the PLO, and Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia were at his bedside.

An unconfirmed report on Israeli radio said Mr Arafat had lost consciousness.

Sharon's isolation of Arafat has had the twin negative effects of increasing Arafat's flagging popularity among Palestinians and of strengthening extremist groups such as Hamas, who were able to point to Sharon's refusal to deal with the elected representative of the Palestinian people as yet more proof that Israel was not interested in a negotiated peace, only in consolidating it's control over valuable Palestinian land in the West Bank.

If Arafat dies, one of a few things could happen, none of which I suspect will please Sharon very much:

1. Arafat's nepotistic inner circle retains control, things stay much the same, making #2 more likely.

2. In the ensuing struggle for control of the PA, extremists come out on top. They then point all of their resources and the PA infrastructure, such as it is, toward war against Israel.

3. In the ensuing struggle for control of the PA, genuine moderates come out on top. Their control of the PA infrastructure, such as it is, is tenuous at best. Either Sharon recognizes the new leadership and begins going through the motions of negotiation, or he doesn't.

3a. If he does, and moderate control holds long enough to produce results for Palestinians (i.e. a steady and noticeable reduction of Israeli control of the West Bank), it could begin steadily depriving Hamas et al of some of their juice.

3b. If Sharon doesn't recognize the new leadership, see #2.

Even in the best case scenario, genuine, sustainable peace and security are a ways off. The key here, as always, is the participation or non-participation of the U.S. At this point, only pressure on Israel to recognize Palestinian leadership would have any positive effect, as Bush's numbskullery has ensured that any Palestinian leader's credibility will be inversely proportional to how close he is perceived as being to the U.S. In any case, given Bush's record of service to the Christian-Zionist nutballs, I'm not optimistic.