Because there is, in fact, a war-winning weapon close to hand that the Allawi government could use — with support from allies and from both Democrats and Republicans. This weapon could, at a stroke, put flesh on the bones of formal democracy, change the dynamic of the insurgency, begin to win the confidence of the Iraqi people and create a powerful, growing force for stability, national unity and economic development. The weapon, of course, is oil — and the huge flows of cash it generates.
The way to deploy it is straightforward. Iraq’s new government should simply announce that as of a date certain, it will establish a new national investment fund — call it The Iraqi People’s Freedom Trust — which will be credited with a major share of all future Iraqi oil earnings. A popular real world model might be the Alaska Permanent Fund, which grants a share of that state’s oil revenues to every citizen. Revenues directed to Iraq’s Freedom Trust could be invested in Iraqi government bonds, keeping a small cash reserve to provide for cash withdrawals from the Trust by individual Iraqis.
...By sharing some of Iraq’s vast oil wealth with its people, a new Iraqi government could foster the rise of a broad-based, democratic middle class. It could turn black gold into liquid freedom, the fuel for democracy and the engine of development. The Freedom Trust would give the Iraqi people, and their new police and Army, a future to believe in — and fight for. This single move would do more than any other initiative to help secure a lasting peace, grounded in justice. And such a peace may be the only outcome that could, in some small measure, redeem the sacrifices that Americans and Iraqis are now enduring.
I've toyed around with this same idea myself, as I'm sure others have, but Glynn does a very good job of fleshing out the details. It seems a rather ingenious way to immediately invest the Iraqi people in the stability of their country while seriously reducing incentives for supporting the insurgency. Even more significantly in the long run, it could provide a genuine alternative to the oil-fed kleptocracies which dominate the region, and one with very visible, tangible benefits.
What are the possibilities for such a plan to be developed? I suppose that depends upon how much control over Iraqi oil the Bush gang feels entitled after having spent over 1000 lives and hundreds of billions of dollars there. There's also the question of securing the pipelines, which the Iraqi government doesn't seem likely to be able to do on its own any time soon. But, again, it's very possible that the average Iraqi would take much more of an active interest in pipeline security if it was literally his money flowing through there.
Wouldn't it be something if, after having spent all this blood and treasure to overthrow a dictator and install a reformist government in Iraq, the new government nationalized the country's oil and socialized its profits? Given that this is essentially what provoked the U.S.-aided overthrow of a reformist government and installation of a dictator in neighboring Iran fifty years ago, I think that would qualify as irony.
UPDATE
Here's an open letter from Michael Lind advocating this idea over a year ago. It also has some links at the bottom to other similar proposals.
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