BARGHOUTI

There's been some speculation that Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti, currently serving five life terms in an Israeli prison, might be released to run for president of the Palestinian Authority. Usually that would seem very unlikely, Israel has historically been very firm on not releasing Palestinians who have been convicted in the murder of Israeli civilians, but I've seen the possibility of Barghouti's release discussed in too many places to dismiss it.

On the NewsHour the other night, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom repeated his denial that there was any chance of Barghouti being released, but there was a palpable reserve in his statement that was new, and that made me immediately sit up.

Barghouti is by far the most popular Palestinian leader. He's the most prominent exponent of the new guard of militants who grew up in the occupied territories. He has repeatedly and explicitly recognized Israel's right to exist and the right of Palestinians to fight the occupation by any means necessary. He's one of the few Palestinian leaders, perhaps the only one, with the credibility to sell the Palestinians on some of the more difficult terms of a peace deal, such as compensation in lieu of the right of return.

Even if he's not released from prison, Barghouti will continue to exert influence over Palestinian politics, and it's unlikely that any new Palestinian leadership will be able to establish legitimacy without his blessing.