HILLARY

The conventional wisdom now is that Hillary Clinton is the one to beat for the Democratic nomination in 2008. I'm of two minds about this. The first is that a Hillary candidacy seems to run completely counter to DNC chairman Howard Dean's plans to make Democratic inroads into the GOP-dominated South. It's been my experience (I have a number of very conservative red state relatives with whom I occasionally, though always in retrospect ill-advisedly, broach the subject of politics) that Hillary Clinton occupies a special place of deep and abiding hostility for conservatives, especially social conservatives, a very common species in the south. They see her as standing for everything they stand agains: big gubmint socialism, the 60s, smoking dope, feminism, and dressing tastefully. She is Gloria Steinem, Teddy Kennedy, and Fidel Castro rolled into one. She is the horsewoman of the decline of Western Civilization. It's as impressive as it is confusing, but it's true: these people hate Hillary Clinton with a hate that burns so hot you could probably attach electrodes to their earlobes and power several small cities ( which, come to think of it, might not be such a bad idea because then they wouldn't need us blue staters to subsidize their electricity as much.) If Dean's plans for the south involve coaxing any of these people into the Democratic Party, a Hillary candidacy means he'll have to come up with a new plan.

Now to my other mind. The thing I've always dearly loved about Hillary Clinton is that she angers and annoys all the right people. A Hillary Clinton victory in 2008 would be about the only thing that could redeem two George W. Bush administrations. I can't think of a more gorgeous fuck off to the people who saddled us with eight years of this guy. End dream sequence.

Hillary spent her first four years in the Senate learning the game, made friends, kept her head down, played well with others. She has staked out positions squarely in the center of the political spectrum, understanding that the center has moved drastically rightward in recent years. My impression, though, is that she doesn't have positions on issues as much as she positions herself on issues. Her recent abortion speech is a perfect example. All politicians do this to some extent, but the trick, which Hillary hasn't yet mastered, is to not seem like they're doing it. Credit where credit's due, Bush has a true talent for this, for abandoning unpopular positions for more defensible ground, then acting as if he's been steadfastly and consistently defending deeply held beliefs the entire time.

No doubt the Right Wing Hate Machine is firing up for Hillary, but then the machine never really stops, does it? The flunkies are just shoveling extra coal into its furnace to get it revved up nice and hot for her. Could she actually win? Given the level of hatred directed at her for the last decade, I have a hard time believing she could, no matter who the Republican nominee is. But it's gonna make great TV.